Nationally, the University of Washington model predicts a peak daily death toll of 2,214 in mid-April, with a total of 84,000 Americans dead by the end of summer. That’s more than twice the lives claimed during the 2018-19 flu season.
Even if the entire nation makes an all-out effort to restrict contact, coronavirus deaths will peak in the next two weeks, with patients overwhelming hospitals in most states, according to a University of Washington study.
“If they don’t, then of course we have to revise upward their forecasts,” Murray said. The earlier those steps are implemented, the bigger their impact on the outcome, he said. “If we’re putting in social distancing, it will change the trajectory of the epidemic.” The study assumes the U.S. response will resemble Wuhan’s and yield similar results, said Dr. Vincent Staggs, a research professor at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. That’s a huge assumption considering the two countries’ cultures, Staggs said.
The peaks in each state are expected to range from the second week of April through the last week in May.The model projects the likely epidemic curve in each state, and are based on the trends in deaths reported each day in the United States and around the world.The model uses deaths, rather than cases, because the numbers are more reliable, Murray said. Using those deaths as a marker, the model delivers the likely number of hospitalizations and patients who will need ICU beds and ventilators.
Some states flattened the curve with early action. California, for example, issued a stay-at-home order and closed all non-essential businesses on March 19, a full week before Colorado took similar action. Colorado is among the states projected to overrun its total hospital bed capacity in the next two weeks.
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