Zoltan Pozsar, a macroeconomist and Fed watcher, predicts that the U.S. central bank will start QE again by the summer of 2023.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised the benchmark bank rate seven times during the course of 2022, leading many to question when the central bank will cease or change course. The Fed has stated that it aims to bring inflation down to the 2% target, and the increases to the federal funds rate are intended to move toward this goal. However, Zoltan Pozsar, a U.S. macroeconomist and observer of the Fed, predicts that the central bank will start quantitative easing again by summer.
“I think there is a good chance that we don’t see the Fed hike at all in February,” Baruch told Lin. “We could see something from them that would surprise the markets in the first week of February.” However, Baruch emphasized that markets will be “volatile,” but also will see a strong rally. Baruch stated that the rate hikes “were aggressive,” and he noted that “there were signs in 2021 that the economy was ready to slow.
“It’s not hard to imagine scenarios where they end up raising rates a fair amount next year,” English said. “It’s also possible they end up cutting rates more if the economy really slows and inflation comes down a lot. It’s hard to be confident about your outlook. The best you can do is balance the risks.”
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