BREAKING: UN: In a decade, warming likely to blow by level world leaders sought to prevent. ‘Guaranteed that it’s going to get worse,’ co-author says.
Each of five scenarios for the future, based on how much carbon emissions are cut, passes the more stringent of two thresholds set in the. World leaders agreed then to try to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius since the late 19th century because problems mount quickly after that. The limit is only a few tenths of a degree hotter than now because the world has already warmed nearly 1.1 degrees Celsius in the past century and a half.
For example, the kind of heat wave that used to happen only once every 50 years now happens once a decade, and if the world warms another degree Celsius , it will happen twice every seven years, the report said. Nearly all of the warming that has happened on Earth can be blamed on emissions of heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. At most, natural forces like the sun or simple randomness can explain one- or two-tenths of a degree of warming, the report said.
In a way, the world can stay at the 1.5-degree threshold with extreme and quick emission cuts, but even then, warming would hit 1.5 degrees in a decade, rise a tad and then come back down, said co-author Maisia Rojas Corrada, director of the Center for Climate and Resilience Research in Chile. In the report’s worst-case scenario, the world could be around 3.3 degrees Celsius hotter than now by the end of the century. But that scenario looks increasingly unlikely, said report co-author and climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, climate change director of the Breakthrough Institute. Both extremes are looking less likely, he said.
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