'The fatigue explanation is a concerning one because we might see avoidable casualties...and extra casualties,' one researcher said.
Deaths at the start of the war would have been up to 45 percent higher without the air raid alerts, according to a recent, in which researchers from the University of Chicago, University of Michigan and Ipsos used geolocation pings tied to mobile devices to determine the effectiveness Ukraine's air raid alert system.
"First, you buy in, and then over time, the responsiveness attenuates," Austin Wright, one of the researchers, told"This idea of there being decay is not unique to Ukraine contexts or this specific type of event." The researchers ultimately concluded that while governmental interventions, like alert systems, alleviate casualties typically in the infancy of wars, enthusiasm or adherence to follow said alerts dramatically decreases as a byproduct of the normalization of war—estimating that on top of the thousands of lives likely saved in the war's first couple months, another 8 to 15 percent of casualties could have been avoided if people followed alerts.
"And then eventually, people will just completely ignore the alerts. Some subsets of people will completely ignore the alerts and just continue going back to life as normal, pre-war in terms of their behavior," Wright said.
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