More than a month into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the White House is preparing for the possibility of a brutal, violent quagmire that could last several months or more and test the West’s resolve.
Western military and intelligence assessments that had believed Russia would quickly topple Kyiv and seize control of much of Ukraine were proven incorrect, as Ukrainian forces, backed by NATO weaponry, have shown surprising resistance. Russia’s military has suffered extraordinary losses in troops and equipment and is pulling back from its positions around the Ukrainian capital to lick its wounds and resupply.
This is shaping up to be a real decision point for the administration. I don’t know what they’re going to do, but I do know the consequences if they don’t act.The ability of Ukrainian forces to fend off the Russian invasion has at once pleasantly surprised the administration and forced it to rapidly adjust its approach to ending the conflict. Questions over how to punish the Kremlin have turned into debates over what kind of Russia could or even should emerge at the end of the war.
Instead, they are aiming for the next best thing: to weaken Russia’s ability to project power by isolating it diplomatically, crushing its economy and demonstrating the hollowness of its military. In just a month’s time, what was once perceived as Moscow’s mighty war machine has been exposed and humbled, while Putin’s aggression has strengthened a once-wayward NATO.
But U.S officials say they’ve seen no evidence that the Russian troops are returning to their motherland. Instead, they believe that Russia may be looking to reinforce its gains in Ukraine’s south and east — where it has had more success — and may be looking to seize control of the Donbas region, home to Kremlin-backed separatists forces. If successful, that may be enough to allow Putin to claim a face-saving victory.
One scenario considered by U.S. officials involves Russia focusing its forces on the east and using long-range missiles to shatter other Ukrainian cities, potentially leading to a drawn-out conflict and an escalating death toll.
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