If all UK citizens reset their psychological clocks to before the pandemic, the economy could surge. That’s a pretty big “if” though, writes aimeedonnellan
Johnson’s punt is unfortunately timed. On Monday, stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic slumped on news that the so-called Delta variant was spreading rapidly. In America, cases surged 70% last week compared to the previous seven-day period, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In Spain, cases rose for the fourth week in a row and in France, Germany and Italy cases rose by over 100%. In the UK, cases rose by 44%, the tenth week of rises, according to JPMorgan.
The UK leader has one thing in his favour. On Sunday, Britain recorded 25 deaths, compared to 1,200 when daily cases last hit their current 55,000. That’s because 54% of the British adult population is fully inoculated, much higher than most other countries in Europe and Asia and on a par with Israel’s 58%. What happens next depends on what Britons do with their newfound freedom.
If all UK citizens reset their psychological clocks to before the pandemic, the UK economy could surge. In February UK lawmaker Layla Moran, who has been investigating Covid-19, said the annual cost of long-term ailments related to Covid-19 could reach 2.5 billion pounds annually. The UK Office for National Statistics, meanwhile, reckons the domestic hospitality industry lost 2.
That’s a pretty big “if” though. It’s just as likely that a critical mass of Britons pay attention to the continuing non-zero risk of infection and exercise caution going out to bars, restaurants and public gatherings, similar to if previous restrictions were still in place. Airlines and cruise ship groups were especially hard hit by Monday’s market slump.
Britons are especially likely to hang back if they observe what’s happening in countries with similarly high vaccination rates. Israel reimposed restrictions like indoor mask-wearing and curbs on large weddings as Covid-19 rates spiked over the past week. Germany, a country with far fewer infections than the UK, has no plan to remove restrictions. Johnson’s reopening hinges on the dubious assumption that he has a monopoly on wisdom.
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