Britain is set to go to the polls for the third time in less than five years on December 12th. Who is ahead?
The election is particularly hard to predict, for two reasons. First, Britain’s electoral landscape has changed markedly. The country has become polarised into Leave and Remain camps. At the same time, the old two-party system has fragmented into more of a four-party configuration; in addition to the Conservatives and Labour, the strongly pro-Remain Liberal Democrats and the avidly pro-Leave Brexit Party both poll in double figures. Moreover, Scottish and Welsh nationalists have drawn support.
A second factor is that, under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system, in which seats are allocated to candidates who win a plurality of votes in their constituencies, voters are increasingly likely to vote tactically—switching parties to maximise support for the strongest Leave or Remain candidates.
Our general-election tracker aggregates data from half a dozen polling firms to give a sense of where national sentiment lies, but does not predict the distribution of seats*. It should be read with caution.Since thereferendum in June 2016 Britain has become a country that votes increasingly by age. Jeremy Corbyn, the avowedly socialist Labour leader, enjoyed a cult-like status among many young people going into the 2017 election.
The Conservatives hope to gain seats in Labour’s pro-Brexit northern heartlands and Labour will want to make gains in pro-is expected to wrestle more votes from the other parties in Scotland and add to their tally of 35 seats out of a possible 59.The Economist’s poll-of-polls aggregates data from several firms using a statistical method called a generalised additive mixed model with smoothing.
Brasil Últimas Notícias, Brasil Manchetes
Similar News:Você também pode ler notícias semelhantes a esta que coletamos de outras fontes de notícias.
Floods become UK election issue as parties spar over fundingLONDON (AP) — British political leaders swapped blame Saturday over floods that have drenched parts of England as the deluge became an issue in the campaign for the Dec. 12...
Consulte Mais informação »
Brexit ‘Paralysis’ Leads Moody’s to Lower Outlook on U.K. DebtMoody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook on the U.K.’s debt rating, saying the country’s handling of Brexit has shown its once robust public institutions are at risk of losing their predictability and cohesiveness.
Consulte Mais informação »
Boris Johnson blames severe UK floods on climate change and construction - InsiderThe floodwaters have claimed the life of one woman, disrupted train services, and raised at least one river to a record height.
Consulte Mais informação »
Moody's warns UK of further debt downgrade on Brexit paralysisMoody's warned on Friday it might further cut its rating on Britain's ...
Consulte Mais informação »
Brexit in January 2020 won't lift fog over UK markets, investors sayLONDON - Never mind Britain's general election and January 2020 Brexit dead...
Consulte Mais informação »
Jeff Lynne's ELO Come 'From Out Of Nowhere' to Top U.K. Album ChartJeff Lynne's ELO debut at No. 1 on the new U.K. album chart with From Out Of Nowhere (RCA/Sony).
Consulte Mais informação »