Oil discoveries often lead to inflated expectations and borrowing binges. Uganda is trying to learn from others' mistakes
polish”, is how one oilman describes Uganda’s black stuff. It is waxy when heated and solid at room temperature. Some 6bn barrels lie in the western region around Lake Albert, of which 1.4bn may be recoverable. Commercial discoveries were first made in 2006—the biggest onshore oil finds in sub-Saharan Africa for two decades. But if the oil moves slowly, so too does oil development. Production is not expected to begin until 2022 at the earliest.
Borrowing binges are often based on inflated expectations. In a paper from 2017, James Cust of the World Bank and David Mihalyi of the Natural Resource Governance Institute, a think-tank, analysed 236 oil discoveries around the world between 1988 and 2010. They looked atgrowth forecasts made after oil was found, then checked to see if the predictions were right.
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