The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted on Wednesday for the first time since Jun...
NEW YORK/LONDON - The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted on Wednesday for the first time since June 2007, in a sign of investor concern that the world’s biggest economy could be heading for recession.
Weak economic data and low inflation around the world, global trade conflicts and political tensions in places such as Hong Kong have sparked worries about world growth, fueling market expectations of central bank interest rate cuts and triggering steep falls in government bond yields. “We look at 2s/10s and the yield curve in general as long leading indicators,” Cleveland said. “Long because a long period can elapse between inversion and a recession. For example, 2s/10s inverted in December 2005 and the recession did not begin until December 2007: a full 24 months.”
In midday trading, U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields US10YT=RR were last down at 1.586%, from 1.68% late on Tuesday.While the yield on nominal 30-year bonds had not yet broken below 2% for the first time ever, Treasury futures market signals indicated an expectation that it would do so soon. The implied yield on the 30-year Treasury futures contract expiring in September USU9 was 1.74% on Wednesday, near a record low.In March, the inversion of the U.S.
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