U.S. stocks struggled for momentum on Tuesday as traders shied away from chunky bets ahead of July inflation data due Wednesday that may decide the fate of the recent summer rally.
What’s happening On Monday, the Dow eked out a gain of 0.1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each lost 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite is up 18.8% from its 2022 low touched in mid-June, but remains down 19.2% for the year to date.
Hopes that inflation may have peaked and that the Federal Reserve may thus be able to adopt a less aggressive monetary tightening cycle has helped the S&P 500 index bounce nearly 13% from its 2022 low touched in mid June. However, a sales warning from semiconductor former darling Nvidia Corp. NVDA, -2.88% on Monday gave bulls some pause for thought. And analysts warn the market’s optimistic tone of late will be further challenged should the CPI report come in hotter than expected.“This temporary calm could clearly all change tomorrow with the latest U.S. CPI so maybe the next 30 hours will be the calm before the storm or perhaps herald in the real start of the dog days of summer,” said analysts at Deutsche Bank.
Meanwhile, the debate continues over whether the latest stock market advance is the start of a more prolonged uptrend or a rally that will fail when faced with slower economic growth and higher interest rates.Wells Fargo strategists warned that profit projections were too rosy. “We expect slowing revenue growth and higher costs to squeeze margins in the coming quarters, likely leading to an earnings recession over the next 12 months,” the Wells Fargo analysts said in a note to clients.
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