Tensions between Iran and the U.S could force the U.S. military to keep up a costly deployment of troops in the Middle East for years to come to protect oil shipping and Persian Gulf allies, according to a study released Thursday
“More than a month later, oil prices were actually lower than pre-attack levels, showing the resilience of the oil market as well as the difficulty for Iran to actually affect global oil prices,” according to the report.
A second scenario would see Iran stage more severe missile attacks on major oil and energy sites in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The Sept. 14 attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities, which the United States and its allies blamed on Iran, was a strategic watershed as it showed Tehran had much more sophisticated military capabilities than previously assessed by outside governments, the report said.
In the event of a war between the United States and Iran with a large-scale bombing campaign by the United States and Tehran closing off the Strait of Hormuz with mines and other tactics, oil prices could jump initially to $175-$200 a barrel. Within one year, the price would likely fall to $80-$100 a barrel, it said.Hamad I Mohammed / Reuters
The oil price projections in the report were based on a “soft” market that is currently over-supplied, and dominated by concerns of an approaching global recession along with a belief that a U.S.-Iran war remains a remote possibility, the study said.
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