The U.S. and its allies are planning for a Ukrainian government-in-exile and fueling a long insurgency against a Russian occupation and whatever puppet regime Moscow installs if the Kremlin establishes military control.
, which drew 141 votes, is one element of “laying the groundwork” to recognize Zelensky’s administration as Ukraine’s legitimate government and to keep it afloat even if it no longer controls territory, said a senior European diplomat.“We haven’t made a plan yet, per se, but it would be something we would be ready to move on right away,” the diplomat said. “In our experience, it helps to know generally you have international support.
“Those supply lines are going to be very, very vulnerable, and that’s where you really literally starve the Russian army.”Moulton, who served in Iraq as a Marine Corps infantry officer, said that he is in favor of sending Harpoons and Stingers — the administration has decided to send the latter weapons, according to a U.S. official and“You can’t ship them to Ukraine at the last minute and expect some national guardsman to pick up a Stinger and shoot down an aircraft,” he said.
If Russian and Ukrainian negotiators who have been meeting near the border in Belarus reach some settlement, that will likely diminish the momentum for an insurgency and support for it, Devine predicted. “Russia has more troops than Ukraine,” said a second senior European diplomat. “Ukrainian troops are very brave, but they are already fighting more than a week.”
Rita Konaev, director of analysis for Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, said Ukraine should be preparing its citizens for combat in cities accompanied by mass air and artillery bombardment, which Russia will use to try to reduce the amount of door-to-door fighting that taking cities requires.
But Russia’s ability to impose that vision is “most improbable,” the diplomat said, given the profound anger in Ukraine against the Russian invasion.
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