France and Germany could be the biggest beneficiaries in an escalation in trade tariffs between the U.S. and China, Barclays economists have projected.
on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports if the world's two largest economies fail to agree a trade deal.
"Our comparison of China's import structure across its main trading partners reveals that France, Germany and the U.K. are the closest 'U.S. proxies' in terms of relative sectoral decomposition of their exports to China," Keller's note said.Barclays' new baseline global trade scenario assumes a full-blown trade war which would see the U.S.
On a sectoral level, China's imports from the U.S. are concentrated in transport equipment, electronics and chemicals.
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