A decisive win for Turkey’s main opposition party in a re-run of a mayoral election in Istanbul this weekend has dealt a blow to President Erdogan, prompting hopes for economic and political change.
Against this backdrop of domestic and international uncertainty for Turkey, the latest election results in Istanbul have prompted hopes that Erdogan could be pushed toward performing political and economic reforms in Turkey. The market rally certainly suggests hopes that Erdogan could focus more attention on the economy which the International Monetary Fund predicts will contract 2.5% in 2019 before growing by 2.5% in 2020.
"First whether MHP leader, Bahceli, will affirm his commitment to the ruling coalition with the AKP - I think many people have questioned his ultimate loyalty. If he pulls the rug from Erdogan sensing weakness we could see early parliamentary and presidential elections," Ash noted. The EIU's Birch told CNBC's Squawk Box Europe on Monday that President Erdogan is unlikely to loosen his grip on power lightly, however, and that there is no clear view on what might happen next.
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