Turkey’s centenary could mark the end of the Erdogan era

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Turkey’s centenary could mark the end of the Erdogan era
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Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political obituary has been written before, but even allies admit upcoming elections will be his toughest WorldAhead

Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskThe economy, as well as concerns over corruption and institutional integrity, may be Mr Erdogan’s undoing. Presidential and parliamentary elections are set for June. The opposition has not yet put forward its candidate for the presidency, but polls show Mr Erdogan would lose to each of the putative contenders in a run-off.

Many Turks worry that Mr Erdogan may resort to extreme measures to avoid defeat. He is likely to try to spend his way out of a hole. Starved of hard currency, Turkey is courting new investments from Russia, Saudi Arabia and the. It has already rolled out a debt-amnesty programme and dramatically raised the minimum wage. More stimulus spending could propel the official inflation rate into triple digits.

Mr Erdogan may also try to reverse his flagging fortunes through confrontation, either with Kurdish insurgents in Syria, or with old enemy Greece over airspace and maritime rights. With Greek elections round the corner, too, the risk of escalation is real. Yet even that may not save Mr Erdogan. There is a real chance that, by October, when the official celebrations take place, the Erdogan era will be over. But do not underestimate the lengths to which he will go to prevent this happening.This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition of

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