You may think his worst ideas won’t get far. Sadly, on trade he has been singularly influential
Joe Biden’s approval rating is languishing and Donald Trump is cruising to the Republican presidential nomination, so it is wise to consider what another Trump term might bring. Though much about Mr Trump’s policy agenda is chaotic, in one area he is crystal clear: he wants to raise tariffs. A lot. He has proposed slapping a 10% tariff on all imported goods, thereby trebling the country’s average and taking American trade protectionism back to its mid-20th-century heyday. This is not idle talk.
America has run a trade deficit every year since 1975, during which time it has been the world’s pre-eminent economic power. And Mr Trump’s own experience shows that tariffs alone do little to change the trade deficit. It widened by nearly 25% during his time in office. Tariffs do help some manufacturers. Protected industries tend to expand their domestic market share, as steelmakers have since Mr Trump coddled them with tariffs.
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