First Read is your briefing from 'Meet the Press' and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.
Political polls of all stripes swung and missed in the 2020 presidential election., the cumulative error was the largest in 40 years.
In the months after the election, the bipartisan team of pollsters who conduct the national NBC News poll — the Wall Street Journal is no longer a partner — evaluated the poll and its 10,000 interviews in all of 2020 compared with actual voters from states’ voter files.The actual electorate was whiter and older than our poll showed: In our October merged surveys, 18 percent of voters were 65+ , and 72 percent were white-non Hispanic .
The poll overstated Biden’s support in urban areas compared with the actual results: "Our analysis of county-based data shows our over-estimation of Biden's margin over Trump was primarily concentrated in urban areas across geographies," the pollsters said. The NBC pollsters found other complicating factors, including declining poll participation rates, the coronavirus pandemic , and Trump’s unique role .They are adjusting samples to be slightly older and keep white non-Hispanics above 70 percent of registered voters.
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