Is Donald Trump trying to provoke Iran into a military confrontation? Opinion | GiorgioCafiero
The Trump administration’s recent designation of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a Foreign Terrorist Organization constitutes the latest bold move in the White House’s anti-Iranian campaign of “maximum pressure”.
For all the chest-thumping, it is doubtful that the move will have much impact on Tehran’s policies, both internal and external. Put simply, the US Treasury has already sanctioned the IRGC quite heavily, so this move, while provocative, is unlikely to pressure Iran into caving into Washington’s demands.
Pressuring Baghdad into choosing between the US and Iran would leave Iraq in a worse state considering how much the country depends on Iran in terms of trade, defence, and energy. Indeed, Iraq’s central government heavily depends on IRGC-backed Shia militias for security and anti-Islamic State operations.
Perhaps one reason to be hopeful that Trump will be keen to avoid such a scenario is the fact that his “isolationist” base is mostly in agreement, and passionately so, about the need to prevent a long-term US military adventure in Syria. Where Trump’s “maximum pressure” agenda is heading is worth asking. Is it sound to conclude that the Islamic Republic will either capitulate to Washington’s demands or collapse if the US administration’s anti-Iranian policies in the forms of threats and economic sanctions continue?
The US administration’s approach to dealing with Iran is particularly dangerous given the history of Iranians refusing to capitulate despite extreme circumstances, best exemplified by the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.
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