The decline in former Pres. Trump’s endorsement win rate probably has more to do with him picking tougher fights than with voters turning their backs on him. FiveThirtyEight explores:
When former President Donald Trump was in the White House, he bragged on Twitter, “As long as I campaign and/or support Senate and House candidates , they will win!” And he was right: In Republican primaries in 2018 and 2020, a Trump endorsement was like a golden ticket to the general election.
Now that he is out of office, though, Trump’s endorsees are not winning as often as they used to — a potential concern for the ex-president as he considers another presidential campaign in 2024. But that doesn’t mean his influence in the party is waning. Rather, the decline in Trump’s endorsement win rate probably has more to do with him picking tougher fights than with voters turning their backs on him. And in absolute terms, his endorsees still win far more often than they lose.
On the surface, Trump’s endorsement record is almost perfect. According to data collected by FiveThirtyEight, the ex-president has endorsed 189 Republican candidates in Senate, House and gubernatorial primaries that have taken place through Aug. 23.
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