As America's Delta wave continues to rise, hospitalizations and deaths are trending in an alarming direction. dwallacewells and EricTopol discuss
An emptied bed in the COVID-19 ICU ward at NEA Baptist Memorial Hospital in Jonesboro, Arkansas, on August 4. Photo: Houston Cofield/Bloomberg via Getty Images Too many people are dying right now.
For a couple weeks now, concerned Americans have taken comfort in the Delta experience of other countries, namely the U.K. and the Netherlands, whose Delta waves had begun earlier and who had — very roughly — similar vaccination rates to ours.
What I just can’t understand is why all three things are all moving up together so rapidly. Given everything we’ve seen in other countries and everything we think we know about the vaccines, even if cases rose dramatically, we’d expect much lower rates of hospitalization and death. But we’re not. I’ve been thinking about that a lot. I think the issues here are, we are substantially lower vaccinated than the U.K. for fully vaccinated. We’re pushing 15 points below the U.K. and Israel for vaccinations. And even though AstraZeneca isn’t as good for suppressing spread, it seems to be as good for preventing hospitalizations and deaths.
There may be something to this waning immunity story. It’s fuzzy, but the people who are getting hit are more apt to be people who were vaccinated very early. I had a patient in recent days, who’s in her 70s. She got vaccinated in January. And, I mean, she almost died. I mean, it’s just terrible. I think — I hope — the monoclonals are going to save her life.
But that should provide some hope, in the sense that other states will take a different course, presumably. Personally, I put a lot of stock into the fact that, even in states where the vaccination levels weren’t so high overall, that seniors seemed pretty well-vaccinated — I think when we last spoke, a couple of weeks ago, in the worst-vaccinated state, Mississippi, 76 percent of seniors had gotten at least one shot. That’s not 99 percent but I would’ve thought it would’ve shielded a lot.
Now right at the moment, the death rate is not following that same proportion, but there’s a lag, and [Friday] was a really bad day and the average is definitely heading up. It’s definitely not what would be expected and it is not what has been seen — that ratio of hospitalizations to cases is very different than what we’ve seen in the U.K.
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