'We could realistically be the last generation to see the Amazon.'
"It is not clear whether the IPCC estimate for a tipping point in the Amazon forest before 2100 includes the possibility for interacting drivers and/or noise; if not, our findings suggest that a breakdown may occur several decades earlier," reads the report.
The researchers used computer models to assess the potential fates of two lake ecosystems and two forests, allowing for 70,000 adjustments of variables. In the study, up to 15% of ecological collapses occurred as the result of new events or environmental stressors, even in cases where the primary stress affecting the ecosystem remained at the same level.
At Lake Erhai in southern China, for example, "abrupt lake eutrophication [the presence of excessive nutrients or minerals] was initially perceived to have been driven by transgression of a threshold in nutrient enrichment driven by agricultural runoff but historical analysis has shown that the shift was also affected by lake water-level management, seasonal climate, and fish farming," reads the study.
Because international experts may not have been considering variables such as water resources when they warned that the Amazon is headed for a climate tipping point by the turn of the next century, study co-author Professor Simon Willcock of Rothamsted Research
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