This election model says 2020 is 'Trump's to lose' | Analysis by CillizzaCNN
While that prospect may seem distant amid an endless series of terrible headlines -- Syria! Ukraine! Impeachment! -- for the President of late, a trio of new electoral models from Moody's Analytics all predict a victory for the incumbent in 2020."Results from each of the three models tell equally compelling stories about what could happen on Election Day, but we hesitate to hang our hat on only one of them," reads the report.
In each episode of his weekly YouTube show, Chris Cillizza will delve a little deeper into the surreal world of politics. Click to subscribe! The biggest one, obviously, is the economy remaining, generally speaking, on its current course."The top of the business cycle is a difficult place from which to forecast, and the economic outlook is filled with substantially more uncertainty than usual," reads the Moody report on the models."Under a moderate recession scenario, in which U.S. real GDP declines cumulatively by more than 2% over the next year, the average of our three models would point to a Democratic victory.
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