The yield curve is the difference between the yields on longer-term and shorter-term Treasuries. A yield curve inversion happens when long-term yields fall below short-term yields. It has historically been viewed as a reliable indicator of upcoming recessions.
All three major U.S. stock market indexes took a downturn on Friday, as investors responded to one of the key recession indicators: the so-called inversion of the yield curve between the 10-year and three-month Treasuries.
Why? While the short-term side of the yield curve is mainly driven by Federal Reserve policy that reflects current economic strength, the long-term end of the yield curve—10-year Treasuries and further out—is thought to indicate bond investors’ long-term views of the market.
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