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After a summer of reopening, vaccination, and lower cases, the coronavirus is bouncing back. The Delta variant's spread lifted daily case counts to their highest levels since January, and authorities have since reinstated some restrictions to counter contagion.
The booming recovery of the summer — fueled by fresh stimulus and a surge of consumer spending — is fading. Second-quarter economic growth has already proved disappointing, coming in at an annualized rate of 6.5% compared to the median estimate of 8.5%. And as August data comes in, the virus resurgence is likely to slow activity.
Early indicators suggest the recovery has already peaked. Whether growth rebounds depends on Americans accepting jobs and continuing to spend.Chase credit- and debit-card spending data tracked by JPMorgan shows a sharp decline in spending on categories most affected by reopening since mid-July. Spending at restaurants sits slightly below the highs seen last month. Activity at hotels and other lodging businesses, however, is down notably from its summer peak.
The sentiment metric can stage a quick recovery and even shift toward optimism if the country can get a handle on the virus's spread, Richard Curtin, chief economist at the Surveys of Consumers, said in the report. Still, with spending on the decline, Americans still leaning on unemployment, and recovery hopes worsening, it seems the country is getting ready for a steeper climb ahead.
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