It wasn't supposed to be this way: The 2017 tax cut and aggressive moves toward deregulation were supposed to pull the U.S. economy out of its glacial move higher.
That happened in 2018, but policymakers and Wall Street pros are growing increasingly fearful that a slowdown if not outright recession is on the horizon, and the Fed is being asked again to ride to the rescue.
Trump's 2.9% GDP growth in 2018 beat any calendar year since the crisis but fell short of his promised 3% or better gain. 2019 appears by all measures to be slowing down, even with the unexpectedly strong 3.1% rate in the first quarter and the unemployment rate at a 50-year low. At the time the financial crisis hit, the Fed had considerably more wiggle room with policy. The funds rate was at 5.25% when the central bank started cutting in 2007; it is now closer to 2.38%, around the middle of the target range of 2.25% to 2.5%.
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