Sorry haters, the economy is still keeping Trump's 2020 hopes alive.
President Donald Trump smiles while speaking at a rally at Resch Center Complex in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Household debt of equivalent income was over 144% 10 years ago and is now at 99%, according to Federal Reserve data. Even without Americans shopping with reckless abandon, the stock market made a new high for the year last week. And while the S&P 500 is a poor indicator of the true economic sentiment on Main Street, Wall Street’s confidence is telling. It tells us that big investors believe the Fed’s dovish tilt means no rate hikes this year. Three to four hikes were expected back in January.at the October 2019 Fed meeting.
The Fed’s decision to put rake hikes on hold allowed the Republican tax cuts to work into an economy no longer threatened by a more contractionary rate policy. Today, rate hike probabilities going into January 2020 are at zero. Unemployment under 4% is good for Trump's rhetoric of putting women, minorities and job-thirsty working class Americans to work. All of that improves his odds of reelection in 2020, despite generally weak approval numbers.
Monthly Chinese PMI data gets updated on Tuesday. Investors will be looking for confirmation of the stabilization thesis in China, which will have ramifications for Asia, the world's largest consumer market.
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