The layoffs that have made the headlines recently, from Stripe to Twitter, are concentrated in sectors of the economy most-sensitive to interest rates, such as housing and autos, and where companies 'over-hired,' predominantly in technology.
"Firing people is no fun, but you don't want to over-hire," Taska said."Let's start with revising the outlook on open positions versus where it was three to four months ago. This is not the phase for 'fire first' except in tech, where they over-hired," he said.The number of people working or looking for work remains near historical lows as measured by the labor force participation rate and it has been in a downward trend for a decade.
"We see almost no signs of mass layoffs other than in the areas most sensitive to interest rates," said Andrew Challenger, senior v.p. at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which works with firms to help transition employees out of their workforces."We're seeing a slight uptick in tech and auto and construction."
That could change. In fact, Challenger thinks the labor lag effect will be a factor in 2023, but he is less than confident in making that call."Three to six months from now I think it will be different, but I also thought that six months ago," he said.The biggest driver of labor market tightness was, and will remain, the aging population and baby boomers retiring.
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