Mike Santoli discusses where the market stands one year from the low of the 2022 bear market.
A report card for the stock market as it approaches one year since the October 2022 bottom of the mini-bear market would probably read, "Good effort, shows perseverance, needs improvement." In the broadest statistical terms, the S & P 500 has maintained the uptrend that began last Oct 12 with a close of 3577 after last week nearly touching, never breaching, and then bouncing off its rising 200-day moving average near 4200.
"The bang would be the long-awaited recession, a final washout for equities, and then a typical early cycle recovery, in which the 'worst' stocks recover the fastest and the market broadens out. "The whimper scenario would be a soft landing with inflation falling below 3%. That could be enough for the Fed to take its foot off the brakes, while earnings estimates continue to improve, driven by an AI-led boom in capital investment.