Boris Johnson remains under pressure as prime minister despite winning confidence vote this week
premiership has reached the same precarious stage as his predecessors in record time. History does not repeat itself exactly but recent experience can give pointers as to the likely direction of travel.
Perhaps that is because the UK has a parliamentary rather than a presidential system. In cold figures only 25,351 people actually voted for Johnson personally, in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency. All the rest backed other candidates standing elsewhere for the Conservatives.
Her disappointingly weak victory meant Thatcher faced a second round in the leadership contest. She said"we fight on, we fight to win" but was gone within days before it took place. Johnson has survived for now, with a technical immunity from a second challenge for a year. Thatcher's fall was foretold before her last leadership challenge by the resignations of her chancellor Nigel Lawson and Sir Geoffrey Howe, who had served her as chancellor, foreign secretary and deputy prime minister. There is no-one of equivalent independent standing in Johnson's cabinet. He purged many veterans who might have become threats not just from his government, but from the party and parliament too.
The one thing he has in common with Heseltine, and, Ken Clarke, that other perennially available big beast, is that as a pro-European he appeals more to the country as a whole than to the Conservative activists who choose the leader.The second questionable line delivered by Team Boris is that"he got all the big calls right".
Most Tory MPs want policy changes, often in opposite directions. Those Tory MPs who voted against him this week are not expressing contrition, just the hope Johnson will change.Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, announcing the result of the confidence vote
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