The battle for Senate control will hinge on campaigns in any one of six states, maybe seven, as Republicans aim to net the single seat they need to reclaim the majority in the midterm elections.
Democrats are defending the barest of advantages. Their rule over the evenly divided, 50-50 Senate exists courtesy of the tiebreaking vote Vice President Kamala Harris wields in her constitutionally designated role as Senate president. That leaves Democrats little room for error in a 2022 election cycle shaping up as a Republican wave and correspondingly leaves the GOP multiple options to reach 51 among the six to seven states where the parties are duking it out.
With the help Kelly is on track to receive from outside groups such as the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer , he will have more than enough resources to defend himself.
With a war chest of $23 million as of May 4, Warnock could be harder to beat in battleground Georgia than many Republicans presume. He could also run into a Republican buzz saw. Biden’s numbers in the Peach State are atrocious. And Walker, a first-time candidate for office endorsed by Trump, is a Georgia folk hero with virtually 100% name identification and possibly just as much goodwill.
But the atmosphere here for Democrats is so bad that Republicans are quietly talking about the possibility of a clean sweep in federal races this November. Although there is nothing particularly wrong with Cortez Masto, a capable liberal Democrat, Republicans would counter that there is plenty wrong with her Senate voting record.
Democrats exhaled after Gov. Chris Sununu opted against running for Senate this year. They concede Hassan is vulnerable. But Democrats continue to believe, even as their party’s prospects in the midterm elections grow more dire, that only a Republican of Sununu’s stature and popularity is a real threat to the incumbent.
And Fetterman’s anti-politician schtick — he can typically be seen wearing shorts and hoodies and looks more like a tow-truck driver than an elected official — would seem tailor-made for the current era. Indeed, Fetterman’s image sets up a favorable contrast with Oz, the famous television personality known as “Dr. Oz” , who moved to Pennsylvania from New Jersey less than a year ago to run for Senate. But Oz might be less vulnerable than he appears.
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