If things spiral into a war, it won't be because of intentional provocation from Tehran, but because Trump makes a fatal error or succumbs to the influence of Iran-hawks
Iranians in Tehran take part in an anti-U.S. rally on Saturday to protest the killing of military commander Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi paramilitary chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Photo: Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images In his remarks following Friday’s drone strike that killed Iranian special operations commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad, President Donald Trump was keen to brush off critics who said this provocative attack risked an all-out war with Iran.
The bigger problem, however, is that unlike Osama bin Laden or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, these designated terrorists were also officials in the governments of sovereign states. Muhandis was the deputy chief of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, a state-sponsored coalition of Iraqi paramilitary groups.
Sure enough, Iran’s leadership immediately vowed to take revenge on the U.S. for the assassination, a threat the Trump administration is taking seriously enough to order all U.S. citizens to evacuate from Iraq and deploy an additional 3,500 soldiers to the Middle East.
It is entirely likely, therefore, that Soleimani’s assassination won’t lead to a full-scale war or even to a significant change in the state of the broader Mideast conflict. Khamenei will need to do something that can be plausibly spun as vengeance for domestic propaganda purposes, but probably still wants to avoid anything drastic enough to serve as a pretext for an American attack.
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