Will growth in the 2020s return to the heights of the 2000s, stagnate like the 2010s, or continue its downward trend?
s were excluded. Real income per person in developing countries as a fraction of real incomes in America was 12.1% in 2001. By 2011 it was almost half again as much: 17.8% .
To this already healthy soil three further fertilisers were added. One was the arrival of persistently low interest rates and globalised finance, which provided a lot of money willing to seek out opportunities in emerging markets judged to be more stable than they had been. Another was a broad and sustained rise in commodity prices, which boosted the fortunes of many developing-world economies.
China’s domestic market, while still enormous, is thus substantially less massive than it might have been, and its imports a lot less than they could have been. To exacerbate matters China remains much more dependent on manufacturing than many comparably rich economies. Countries typically begin to shed some industrial production as incomes rise and producers seek out low-wage workers elsewhere.
With the boosting effects of commodity prices and trade growth in abeyance, what of the third factor that kicked off the glory years of the 2000s: interest rates? They remain low. But a post-covid-19 rich-world boom, which would in general be a good thing for developing countries, carries some risks on that front.
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