Ekrem Imamoglu’s victory in Istanbul’s mayoral election offers a way forward for Turkey’s opposition
THIS TIME around, there was no room for doubt. In late March Ekrem Imamoglu had won the Istanbul mayoral election by a fraction of a percentage point. On June 23rd he won the re-run by a landslide.
The move turned out to be one of the worst gambits of Mr Erdogan’s career. In the new election, Mr Imamoglu received a solid 54% of the vote to 45% for AK’s candidate, Binali Yildirim, a former prime minister—a margin of over 800,000. Turnout reached 85%, boosted by thousands of Istanbul residents who cancelled or interrupted their holidays to be home on election day. Mr Yildrim conceded in front of the cameras as soon as the first results were made public.
Mr Imamoglu’s success should be a lesson for his party, says Fehmi Koru, a newspaper columnist. By running a relentlessly positive campaign and refusing to play by the rules of Turkey’s identity politics, he was able to make inroads with conservative voters, something the CHP has not managed for decades. Assuming that Mr Imamoglu can reshape the party in his own image, it might finally broaden its reach. The CHP has long been unable to attract more than 25% or so of the electorate.
But the ground beneath his feet is starting to shake. Emboldened by Mr Imamoglu’s success, some estranged AK politicians, already poised to launch a rival conservative party, might do so sooner rather than later. The economy, which clawed its way out of recession a few months ago, faces the risk of another downturn later this year. Possible American sanctions over Mr Erdogan’s purchase of a Russian missile-defence system would compound the damage severely.
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