You probably already know what it is.
As an offense, if you were told you would get 10 yards per completion with Option #1 being a completion that goes 9 air yards and 1 yard after the catch and Option #2 being a completion that goes 4 air yards and 6 yards after the catch, Option #2 should be the preferred choice. This is because, all other things equal, a 4 air yard pass has a 71% chance of being completed compared to a 9 air yard pass having a 60% chance and yards after the catch are dependent on that the pass being completed.
Frankly, I believe this also plays a role in why the Completion Percentage Over Expected for both Wilson and Smith under the Seahawks offense has historically been pretty damn high. Seattle gets a significant chunk of their passing yards through low-probability, high-reward completions and while it has worked to tremendous effect over the years, easiest completions turning into big gains continue to be a struggle for the Seahawks.
Hopefully the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba can open up the field a little more—the middle of the field, to be more specific—to create some diversity in the Seattle passing game that has been lacking regardless of who’s the QB and offensive coordinator. If they want to be an elite passing offense, they need more simple stuff and new ways to generate explosives besides just playing the classics until better defenses inevitably shut it down.
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