There's some reason to believe that the New York City media’s outsize concern with crime might have cost Democrats the House. EricLevitz writes
— yet only 35 percent of respondents deemed violent crime a major concern at that time. It is entirely legitimate for New Yorkers to consider crime reduction their paramount issue in 2022. But this was even more true in 1999. The electorate’s greater concern with the issue in the latter year therefore cannot be explained as an automatic byproduct of crime’s absolute prevalence.
What’s more, while criminal victimization is concentrated in the city’s most disadvantaged neighborhoods, the political backlash to crime was pronounced in relatively placid suburbs. The homicide spike did not reach into affluent enclaves of Westchester or Long Island; but the New York’s coverage when explaining their midterm vote.
A similar pattern is apparent in nearby districts. Will Jordan, a pollster for the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group, examined the midterm results in six tristate area districts that lie partly within the New York City media market and partly outside it. He found that the GOP did between three and four points better in areas exposed to the NYC market.
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