James Holzhauer’s astounding 'Jeopardy!' success may be the natural evolutionary destination of the show—a final, full realization of the strategic potential locked within its giant board. FiveThirtyEight explains:
What this has meant practically is that Daily Doubles have been found earlier and earlier, down from the 17th clue in a round in 2001, on average, to the 16th in 2019.
One possible explanation for the increased likelihood that respondents will pick a Daily Double earlier is that the placement of the clues aren’t random, which informs this hopping strategy. Only eight Daily Doubles have appeared on the top row of the board, while 866 have appeared in a single box in the fourth row of the left-hand column. In fact, that first column is a pretty big hotspot, along with the other boxes in the fourth row.
But even given his keen ability to discover Daily Doubles, Holzhauer is careful not to find the Daily Doublesquickly, lest he be unable to exploit the other half of his strategy: heavy wagering. “I’ve never talked with anyone else about how to approach the Jeopardy board. I’m definitely not the first player to aggressively attack the Daily Doubles, but I may be the first to consciously try and build a stack before hitting one,” he said, referring to his cash total during the game.
And what does Holzhauer make of analyses like those above? Holzhauer agreed with what our data set showed us: “It seems quite clear that players are putting more effort into hunting for Daily Doubles than they did 15 years ago,” Holzhauer said. “The rise in prominence of the Jeopardy Archive, as well as the general growth of data science, likely contributed to this.” As with the
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