How to ensure Russia suffers a strategic defeat
eve of the commemoration of the Allies’ D-Day landings in Normandy, General Mark Milley, America’s most senior general, drew a direct parallel with the Ukrainian counter-offensive starting some 2,800km to the east. The goal, he said, was the same as it had been nearly eight decades ago: “To liberate occupied territory and to free a country that has been unjustly attacked by an aggressor nation, in this case, Russia.
Although it is the resolve and competence of the Ukrainian forces that will be decisive, external factors will influence the outcome. America’s president, Joe Biden, has declared two broad objectives: to ensure both that Ukraine is not defeated and that. Early on he declined to send troops to Ukraine or impose a “no-fly zone”. But he has delivered weapons of ever greater quantity and sophistication to help Ukraine defend itself.
On the eve of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, a group of senior Western officials and experts gathered at Ditchley Park, a stately home in the countryside near London and a venue for informal transatlantic powwows since the cold war—to discuss how the war might unfold. They came up with three broad scenarios.
A third, gloomier outcome would be a stalemate that lets Russia hold on to most of what it has taken. That would undermine Western confidence in Ukraine and embolden Mr Putin. For all Russia’s military setbacks, says Alexander Gabuev, of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, a think-tank in Berlin, Mr Putin does not appear to have abandoned his intention of subjugating the whole of Ukraine, annexing more of its territory and installing a puppet government in Kyiv.
Some Western officials, notably in Germany, hope the fighting in Ukraine’s counter-offensive will soon be followed by peace talks. But others, especially in America, caution that Mr Putin is unlikely to be ready for serious negotiations unless he suffers a rout. Even if talks were to take place, Russia’s participation might be an entirely insincere stalling tactic. Genuine diplomacy might have to wait for a further round of Russian defeats next year.
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