The December jobs data doesn't include the worst of the Omicron surge — and it makes January's report even more important
The December jobs report was stale the moment it was published. Blame the Omicron variant's timing.in December as supply-chain issues and elevated virus cases continued to hobble the recovery. The 199,000 added payrolls, while preliminary, show the hiring rebound slowing despite roughly 6.3 million Americans still unemployed. And worse readings are highly likely to follow.
Economists expected the country to add 450,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, more than twice the actual figure. That upset came while the economy remained almost fully open and before Omicron emerged as the next variant to endanger the recovery. The establishment survey behind the payrolls count ran through the pay period that included December 12. Daily US virus case counts remained elevated during that time and started to trend higher later that week. Yet the survey period for businesses that pay their employees on a weekly or bimonthly basis doesn't include the parabolic surge in COVID cases that began on December 20.
The timing has massive implications for the next jobs report. January data, which is scheduled to be published February 4, will be the first to factor in the latest wave of cases and its effect on the labor market. That report's household survey period will run from January 9 to 15. If cases continue to climb as they have in the last few days, the January data will reflect job creation during the worst period yet of the coronavirus's spread. The CEO of New York-Presbyterian Hospital forecasted on Friday that the city's own Omicron surge would hit its peak this week,
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