Iran will see no choice but to retaliate for the killing of an official this senior, and it has plenty of options
Secretary of Defense Mark Esper on Thursday made what, at the time, seemed to be a warning. Within twelve hours, it turned into a prediction, with one crucial flaw — this is not a game. In less than a week, the standoff between the U.S.
As the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, Qasem Suleimani was considered by many to be more powerful than the Iranian foreign minister. Your columnist cannot resist reminding you that in 2015, then-candidate Trump did not know who Suleimani was, had to be prompted in a friendly interview, and then confused the Quds Force with U.S. allies the Kurds. At the time, Trump said the names “would all be changed” by the time he took office. Close to five years later, here we are.
Brace for more violence in the region. . Its proxies can target Americans and allied governments from Saudi Arabia to Israel. Hezbollah, in particular, is considered the world’s most effective non-state armed force. It and Iran can surely target Americans anywhere in the region. Before the sun was up Friday, Israel announced it was moving forces north to counter potential Iranian responses.
Watch for blowback. Some of the consequences may be far-afield from the evening’s attack. Former Defense Department official Ilan Goldenberg wonders about Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and re-starting its bomb program in earnest. Americans of Middle Eastern origin worry about yet more restrictions on travel and immigration, and yet more suspicion, humiliation, and prejudice, both at the border and in everyday life.
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