Against expectations, 2019 was a bumper year for stocks and most other financial assets. Why?
of 2018 was a dismal one for American stockmarket investors. Meagre gains eked out through a volatile year were reversed at its end, on fears of slowing global growth and all-out trade war between America and China. Theindex of large companies tumbled by 15% between November 30th and December 24th that year. Many thought a recession was imminent.500 rose by 28.9% during 2019, close to the 2013 record increase and well above the average annual gain for the past decade .
December’s market oomph seems to have come from a mini trade deal between America and China. America cancelled planned new tariffs on Chinese goods and cut some already in force. China agreed to buy more American goods. A bumper year, then. But what of 2020? The potent combination of monetary easing and evaporating risks to growth seems largely played out. Shifting from trade hostilities to a ceasefire had a big impact; any further rapprochement is unlikely to do so much. Meanwhile neither the Fed nor independent economists are forecasting interest-rate moves during 2020.
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