Most of the economic sanctions imposed on Russia still don’t apply to oil and gas, which are critical to the country’s trade balance and financial stability.
has called the Russian war in Ukraine genocide, but on the other hand the U.S.’s European allies are dragging their feet about an energy embargo. “We are saying, Look, guys, it cannot work the way you are proposing,” Ustenko said. “You are stopping caviar exports. However, what can really harm this Russian military machine is oil. And nothing has happened with oil. We just had talks and talks and talks, and then nothing happened.
Ustenko said Washington should exert more pressure on its European allies to join an energy embargo. He also called on the United States and other members of the G-7 to provide more financial support for the Ukrainian government as it tries to pay for the war and maintain social spending for its population. “The contraction in our economy is huge,” he said. “Fifty per cent of our businesses are not fully operational.
Ustenko estimated the deficit to be about eight billion dollars a month. With Ukraine effectively shut out of the international financial markets, he said, it can’t issue more debt to cover this amount. If the G-7 provided fifty billion dollars in new financing, that would resolve the deficit issue for at least another six months, he said, adding: “We need extra financial support, including from the United States. Of course, the U.S. was very kind, providing us with weapons.
In the view of Ustenko and many other observers, though, the first priority must be the immediate imposition of an energy embargo—because that is where Russia is most vulnerable. Inlast weekend, Andrei Illarionov, a former adviser to Putin, said that, if Western countries did successfully prevent Russia from exporting oil and gas, then “within a month or two, Russian military operations in Ukraine probably will be ceased, will be stopped.
There is no guarantee that Illarionov is right. In her Twitter thread, Haber, the German Ambassador, made the counter-argument: “Putin’s rationale is not the result of a classic cost-benefit-analysis,” she wrote. “And we have to consider that his war machine—at least in the short run—does not depend on foreign currency revenues.” The only way to find out who is right would be to impose the energy embargo.
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