Raoul Pal, the former hedge fund manager and founder of Real Vision, thinks the US economy is at a crucial tipping point.
— that's exactly what's happening in the bond market. And he says few few people seem to be listening to it., an investing podcast.
Pal says that investors are electing to overlook the ominous price action in credit markets — which are signaling an imminent economic downturn — and instead focusing on US consumers and the labor market. Conventional wisdom suggests both are signaling continued strength amidst the turmoil. To demonstrate the incongruousness of this idea, he points to the Purchasing Managers Index, which is a metric he prefers. He views it as an important, forward-looking variable that paints a contrasting picture of the economic landscape.The monthly PMI survey is designed to encompass the business outlook for over 400 companies, signaling whether it's improving, declining, or staying the same.
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