.NateSilver538: “We are preparing for a long night tomorrow—maybe a very long week with runoffs in Georgia or late-counted ballots.” MORE on the midterms from FiveThirtyEight:
in a series of ballot initiatives and special elections over the summer, often on the basis of superior turnout.Before we get to the third question, a note on terminology. You’ll often hear us use the terms “generic ballot,” “House popular vote” and “national environment,” but they mean somewhat different things.combines what are really two types of polls. One set of polls asks voters which party they’d rather see in control of Congress.
Since these questions tend to produce similar results, we combine them to increase the sample size and consider both to beAfter the election, you can evaluate these polls based on how well they predicted the. That’s the number you get when you add up votes for Democratic and Republican U.S. House candidates in all 435 Congressional districts. In 2020, for instance, Democrats won this measure by— similar to, but less than, Joe Biden’s 4.5-point win in the presidential popular vote.
One potential source of divergence between these measures is that in some districts there’s no Democrat or Republican on the ballot, either because the party didn’t bother to nominate a candidate or because it’s a state like California and theThis year, there are considerably more districts with no Democratic nominee than with no Republican. Specifically, there are 23 House districts with no Democrat on the ballotbut 12 with no Republican.
It’s slightly tricky to calculate exactly how big this effect is, but it will likely shift the final House popular vote margin by at least 1 percentage point toward Republicans, and probably more like 1.5 percentage points. In other words, if the finalpopular voteFinally, you’ll sometimes hear an analyst like me describe the “usually in a context like the following: “Democrats will need a D+1 or D+2 national environment to keep the House.
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