New ScienceForEveryone article: The 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model – What's Shaking? No one can predict earthquakes. But existing faults & past earthquakes give us info about future earthquakes, & geology tells us how the ground shakes during a quake.
No one can predict earthquakes. But existing faults and past earthquakes give us information about future earthquakes, and geology tells us how the ground shakes during an earthquake.
Combining fault locations and activity rates allows us to calculate the frequency of rupture along a given fault. The yearly frequencies of rupture are very low, so this is translated into a percent chance of a fault rupturing over a longer given time scale . This process of calculating times between earthquakes also considers the possibility of earthquakes jumping from one fault to another, as has been observed in past earthquakes such as the 1992 M7.
In addition to engineering design, the USGS engineers and scientists also collaborate with partners on extending the hazard forecasts of ground shaking to risk forecasts of consequent damage to buildings and other structures. For example, USGS and the Federal Emergency Management Agency have forecasted seismic damage to the nation’s buildings in terms of yearly repair costs. Furthermore, the insurance industry uses the NSHM to assess seismic risk and determine insurance premiums.
While incomplete, the preceding examples aim to illustrate the many different improvements to an already useful forecast of future earthquake shaking and its consequences in the United States.Earthquake geology inputs for National Seismic Hazard Model 2023The authors thank Allison Shumway, Rob Chase, and Andrew Makdisi for their suggestions for photographs and help with the first image. We also thank Nico Luco and Leah Salditch for their reviews that greatly improved the readability.
Combining fault locations and activity rates allows us to calculate the frequency of rupture along a given fault. The yearly frequencies of rupture are very low, so this is translated into a percent chance of a fault rupturing over a longer given time scale . This process of calculating times between earthquakes also considers the possibility of earthquakes jumping from one fault to another, as has been observed in past earthquakes such as the 1992 M7.
In addition to engineering design, the USGS engineers and scientists also collaborate with partners on extending the hazard forecasts of ground shaking to risk forecasts of consequent damage to buildings and other structures. For example, USGS and the Federal Emergency Management Agency have forecasted seismic damage to the nation’s buildings in terms of yearly repair costs. Furthermore, the insurance industry uses the NSHM to assess seismic risk and determine insurance premiums.
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