The poll released by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion showed Republican Gov. Greg Abbott with an eight-point lead over Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke among likely voters. But the poll’s margin of error is large at about 5%, which statistically allows for a two-point O'Rourke win or an 18-point Abbott blowout.
among likely voters. But the poll’s margin of error is large at about 5%, which statistically allows for a two-point O'Rourke win or an 18-point Abbott blowout. O’Rourke raises over $25 million from July through late September, outraising Abbott again
"Really, nothing has changed the dynamic of this race," said SMU political scientist Matthew Wilson. "Not the Uvalde shooting. Not the Dobbs decision. Not the millions of dollars both candidates have spent, and now, not the debate."With two weeks until voters can begin choosing who they want to be the next governor, Wilson says the dollars don’t matter as much.
"What his story’s been is the polls are missing the enthusiasm among younger voters, younger female voters galvanized by the Dobbs decision," Wilson said. "I think Beto is hoping for and thinks he might be able to produce an exceptional turnout from that segment of the Democrat Party. I think that is the only way we get upset on Election Day."
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