Tesla Sales Forecasts For Q2: 440,000–450,000 Deliveries
Tesla sales forecast from Troy : 441,000Tesla production forecast from Troy : 470,399
We’re just a handful of days away from finding out Tesla’s actual Q2 numbers, but history would tell us that they won’t be too far off of these estimates. What are your thoughts and your estimates? Looking back one year, you can see that Tesla delivered nearly 255,000 vehicles in Q2 2022. Going from that to 444,000 or so, that would be an increase of about 74% — a huge step up. What might be a concern is that Tesla is seemingly producing more and more compared to what it is delivering, and I may come back to that in another article tomorrow, but it should be noted that as overall volumes go up, one would expect higher volumes of inventory in a single day or week as well.
As far as specific models, the Tesla Model Y seems to be pulling away from the rest of the pack. Troy’s projection for Q2 is that far more than twice as many Model Ys will be delivered than Model 3s, and the Model S & X are negligible at this point on a unit volume basis. The Model Y is also on track to being the best selling vehicle model in 2023. However, one must also ask: how much higher can it go? The one thing about becoming king of the hill is that … one can only go down from there.
To get up to half a million deliveries a quarter, I’m thinking Tesla needs to get the Cybertruck to market. The Model Y,, and a refreshed Model 3 may be able to climb to half a million sales a quarter on their own , but it’s hard to see Tesla not stagnating a bit at some point in the coming year without a strong influx of sales from the Cybertruck, and later on a lower-cost, smaller Tesla.
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