Tesla's special update on autonomy to analysts revealed impressive new data on their programs and the bet they are taking on making a self driving car with neural networks—and a robotaxi fleet based on Tesla cars
Tesla today held an"Autonomy Investor Day" at their HQ in Palo Alto, CA. There, Tesla outlined some of their plans for advanced driver assist and eventual autonomy in Tesla cars. The presentation was more technical than Tesla has revealed in the past, and significantly improved my impression of Tesla's methods and chances. This was certainly the most important press conference that Tesla has given.
If the bet pays off, it is a big win, and they could have the lead in what is perhaps the biggest opportunity in modern industry.New Chip They have done this with all sorts of static and moving objects, and also can look for things based on patterns of movement, such as asking for examples of cars which have cut in front of Tesla cars. When they get an example of a car which does that, they can ask for the video going back in time well before the cut-in, to train the network on what it hints there are before a car actually does a cut-in. This helps them predict the future activity of cars on the road.
This approach gives Tesla an excellent system for training neural networks for perception and driving. The central question will be whether that is enough to attain the"final 9s" of reliability needed to remove the steering wheel from the car. Tesla feels this extremely high level can only be attained with immense amounts of training data, which they have an edge at gaining with their fleet.
LIDAR sees in true 3D, cameras require software to understand the scene to figure out where things are in 3D.LIDAR is much more expensive, but dropping quickly in price. It is not available in quantity and quality levels today, except to Waymo. Cameras are very cheap.
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