1/ BRUMP-TREXIT HAZE
FILE PHOTO: Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson appears on BBC TV's The Andrew Marr Show in Salford, Manchester, Britain, September 29, 2019. Jeff Overs/BBC/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS
These events in two of the world’s most hitherto stable democracies have pushed the World Economic Policy Uncertainty Index – a somewhat crude measure of news articles about economic and policy angst – to the highest in its 20-year history, or some 50% above levels touched during the 2008 financial crisis.
Mario Draghi is preparing to leave the ECB after eight years so European assets will be under scrutiny again. Emerging market central banks are still cutting rates with gusto so their bonds could still run up. Finally, while the year-end always has the potential for a Santa rally in stocks, let’s not forget that last Christmas was more Bah Humbug.- Three U.S.
Additionally, consumer confidence ebbed in September, a potentially worrying signal for consumer spending, which has been driving the U.S. economy while exporters grapple with Chinese tariffs and tepid global demand.- U.S. consumer confidence falls in September, trade fears dominateOn Tuesday it will be 70 years since Mao Zedong proclaimed the People’s Republic from atop Beijing’s Gate of Heavenly Peace. It will be an occasion for pomp, pageantry and might.
Industrial production growth was its softest in 17 years in August, while profits went into reverse. Quarterly economic growth sits near a three-decade low. And to cap it off, citizens wishing to celebrate over a meal of China’s favourite protein - pork - will find it incredibly expensive, since a contagious and fatal fever has put a rocket under prices. There’s some food for thought about the People’s Bank’s next move.
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