The main threats would be strong wind gusts, small hail and brief, torrential downpours.
Lightning strikes during a thunderstorm in Washington. By Jeff Halverson and Jeff Halverson Bio Jason Samenow Jason Samenow Editor and writer covering weather and climate Email Bio Follow April 8 at 12:59 PM Above-80-degree temperatures this afternoon are expected to fuel the atmosphere enough to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms as a disturbance enters the region into this evening.
The main threats would be strong gusts, small hail and brief, torrential downpours. The most likely time will be between 4 and 7 p.m. in our western areas, 5 to 8 p.m. in the immediate area, and 6 to 9 p.m. in our eastern areas.Chance of measurable rainfall in any location: 65 percent south of Beltway to 45 percent north of Beltway.Likely effects: Heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds.Very small chance of: An isolated tornado, large hail.
Forecast rainfall from high-resolution NAM model. Note this is just one model forecast that offers a general idea of what could happen but the actual pattern of rainfall will differ from this. Discussion The chances for more widespread, strong to severe storm activity increase the farther south one goes, especially over central Virginia and lower southern Maryland late this afternoon and especially this evening.
On Sunday, it appeared that the most unstable air mass would reside to our south; but the morning computer model forecasts have changed their tune. The example below, from the high resolution North American Model, suggests some pockets of moderate instability will develop across the District late this afternoon.
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