The best chance of storms will be tonight after sunset, progressing from west to east across the area.
Interstate 95 and Beltway area: 8 p.m. and midnight.Note that brief, gusty showers are possible before the mainline of showers and storms late this evening.Midnight west of the Beltway, around 1 a.m. around the Beltway, and 2 a.m. near the Chesapeake Bay.Small chance of: Brief tornado, small hail, destructive winds , lightning, flooding.Discussion
In the upper levels, a potent trough of low pressure is approaching the Eastern Seaboard. The uplift of air is expected to intensify across the D.C. area as the trough amplifies. With the influx of southern moisture and rising air, waves of showers will develop and transit our region through the afternoon and evening.Our concern shifts to the early evening, as the front nears and a pocket of unstable air develops just along it.
While the instability may be somewhat lacking through a deep layer, the low-level wind fields are exceptionally strong and ideally configured such that any deeper cells may achieve rotation. A look at these very strong winds about a mile above the surface is shown below; note that they are in the range of 70+ mph.
The two images below present radar snapshots as simulated by various forecast models. In the first, the high resolution NAM model suggests a squall line, with embedded strong to severe cells, will pass through the area between 10 p.m. and 1 a.m.
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